Venezuela's President Nicolás Maduro speaks at Miraflores Presidential Palace in Caracas on May 9.
Photo: marcelo garcia/Agence France-Presse/Getty ImagesIran’s economy is suffering from the Covid-19 pandemic and the collapse in oil prices. But that isn’t stopping Tehran from defying U.S. sanctions by rushing to aid Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro.
A tanker that loaded gasoline at Iran’s Bandar Abbas port in March, bound for Venezuela, cleared the Suez Canal last week and could reach the Caribbean by the weekend. Sources tell us four other Iranian-flagged tankers, also carrying fuel for the Maduro regime, are not far behind—and there may be more.
This is a violation of U.S. sanctions on Iran, and Washington is considering its options. On Saturday Iran’s Nour news agency threatened to retaliate if the U.S. takes action. “If the United States, just like pirates, intends to create insecurity on international waterways, it would be taking a dangerous risk and that will certainly not go without repercussion.”
There is also a risk to U.S. interests in doing nothing. Iranian assistance is not charity. Venezuela’s central bank has already transferred to Tehran hundreds of millions of dollars in gold, which is possibly being replenished by organized crime groups mining in the south of the country. The gasoline transaction would be another source of income for Iran and stir instability in America’s backyard.
The Venezuelan economy is in shambles. Mr. Maduro clings to power thanks to Cuban intelligence that has infiltrated the military, national guard and police. But now a gasoline shortage, once limited to the interior of the country, is hitting Caracas, where hardship and long-simmering discontent in sprawling slums threatens to boil over. Mr. Maduro needs gasoline to put out the fire.
Enter Tehran. In December the U.S. sanctionedMahan Air along with the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines and its China-based subsidiary, E-Sail Shipping. “The Iranian regime uses its aviation and shipping industries to supply its regional terrorist and militant groups with weapons, directly contributing to the devastating humanitarian crises in Syria and Yemen,” Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said in a statement.
Mahan Air also flies to Venezuela. Intelligence sources say it has been delivering material to Venezuela’s Paraguana Peninsula to repair the country’s most important refinery complex. The precise operations and cargo aren’t known, but in any case analysts say no quick fix is in sight for the refineries.
U.S. sanctions bar American companies from selling gasoline to Venezuela but do not bar cash sales by non-sanctioned sources in most of the rest of the world, which makes Mr. Maduro’s reliance on Iran all the more notable. Who knows what else Iran may be supplying on those tankers and flights.
President Trump has the legal power to declare an emergency and interdict the tankers. They might be turned around or their cargo seized depending on the legal arguments that the Administration uses. But in either case the U.S. would have to be prepared for a response from Iran, perhaps in the Persian Gulf or Strait of Hormuz.
It’s worth recalling that when Britain agreed to liberate an Iranian oil tanker it had seized near Gibraltar in September, it secured a written promise from Tehran that the oil wouldn’t be delivered to Syria. Within weeks that’s exactly what was done. The Iranians are betting that Mr. Trump, in an election year, won’t take the risk of stopping its gasoline rescue for Venezuela’s dictator.
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