- A disturbance in the Windward Islands is being monitored for development.
- This system is likely to become a tropical storm by the time it reaches the eastern Caribbean Sea.
- It will bring heavy rain and gusty winds to the Caribbean, regardless of development.
Tropical storm watches have been issued in parts of the Caribbean for what may become Tropical Storm Fred, with threats of flooding rain and some wind impacts over the next few days and an uncertain future for Florida this weekend.
The National Hurricane Center issued tropical storm watches Monday afternoon for Martinique, Guadeloupe, Dominica, Saba and St. Eustatius, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands and much of the coast of the Dominican Republic.
This means tropical storm conditions (winds at least 39 mph) are possible in these areas.
The NHC designated a low-pressure system spreading showers and thunderstorms into the Lesser Antilles "Potential Tropical Cyclone Six" Monday afternoon, despite not yet being a depression or storm, lacking a closed low-pressure circulation at the surface.
This "potential tropical cyclone" procedure allows the NHC to issue watches and warnings ahead of time for a system that hasn't developed yet.
The NHC says this system is likely to develop into a tropical storm by Tuesday as it moves generally toward the west-northwest. The next tropical storm in the Atlantic will be named Fred.
Current Status, Forecast Path
(The red-shaded area denotes the potential path of the center of the system. It's important to note that impacts (particularly heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding, winds) with any tropical system usually spread beyond its forecast path.)Parts of the Lesser Antilles will likely experience gusty winds, showers and thunderstorms.
Locally heavy rain and gusty winds will then move across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands Tuesday and the Dominican Republic and Haiti on Wednesday.
Up to 6 inches of rain could fall in these areas, triggering localized flash flooding and mudslides.
An Uncertain Future
Dry air, land interaction and possibly increased wind shear could all be factors that limit this system's ability to intensify later this week as it tracks in the general direction of Hispaniola, Cuba, the southern Bahamas and Florida.
More of those negative factors, such as a track over Hispaniola's rugged mountains or more wind shear could dissipate the system. Less of those factors, such as a track avoiding much of the Caribbean islands, could result in a stronger "Fred".
Given all the potential obstacles we described above, it's too early to determine what, if any, other impacts there might be in Florida this weekend.
Regardless, it appears at least a surge of moisture will arrive in Florida this weekend, wringing out more frequent, concentrated areas of heavier rain than your more typical afternoon thunderstorms provide.
For now, interests from the Caribbean to the Bahamas and Florida should monitor its progress over the coming days. Now is a good time to refresh or develop your hurricane plans.
Tropical activity typically increases during August as we get closer to the peak of hurricane season so it is no surprise that there is an area to watch for tropical development.
(MORE: Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Update)
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August 10, 2021 at 07:04AM
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