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DRIVING THE DAY
NO PRESSURE! — Coronavirus. Climate change. Human rights. All are on the docket this week as President JOE BIDEN plays host to international leaders as the U.N. General Assembly meets in New York.
— It amounts to a major test of his presidency, writes AP’s Aamer Madhani: “a moment when allies are becoming increasingly skeptical about how much U.S. foreign policy really has changed since DONALD TRUMP left the White House.”
— At the same time, Biden may have undercut one of his signature foreign policy goals by blindsiding France with the Australian submarines deal. “[I]t has the potential to do lasting damage to the alliance with France and Europe and throws into doubt the united front Washington has been seeking to forge against China’s growing power,” write Reuters’ Humeyra Pamuk and David Brunnstrom.
— Then there’s the Afghanistan withdrawal, which has underscored many allies’ fears that U.S. foreign policy will forever be America First. FAREED ZAKARIA writes in WaPo that some allies feel Trump consulted them more than Biden. “On everything from vaccines to travel restrictions, the Biden policies were ‘America First’ in logic, whatever the rhetoric,” he writes. Not the easiest rep to shake walking into UNGA.
That sounds like a lot — and it is. But it’s also a sideshow to what’s happening in Washington.
— Biden’s “entire presidential agenda” is riding on the reconciliation bill being crafted in Congress right now, NYT’s Jim Tankersley writes in a sweeping step-back piece.
“No president has ever packed as much of his agenda, domestic and foreign, into a single piece of legislation as President Biden has with the $3.5 trillion spending plan that Democrats are trying to wrangle through Congress over the next six weeks,” Tankersley writes. “It is almost as if President FRANKLIN D. ROOSEVELT had stuffed his entire New Deal into one piece of legislation, or if President LYNDON B. JOHNSON had done the same with his Great Society, instead of pushing through individual components over several years.”
The stakes:
— If he succeeds, “Biden’s far-reaching attempt could result in a presidency-defining victory that delivers on a decades-long campaign by Democrats to expand the federal government to combat social problems and spread the gains of a growing economy to workers, striking a fatal blow to the government-limiting philosophy of President RONALD REAGAN that has largely defined American politics since the 1980s.”
— If he fails: He could end up with nothing. “[A]s Democrats are increasingly seeing, the sheer weight of Mr. Biden’s progressive push could cause it to collapse, leaving the party empty-handed, with the president’s top priorities going unfulfilled. … If Mr. Biden’s party cannot find consensus on those issues and the bill dies, the president will have little immediate recourse to advance almost any of those priorities.”
Oh, it could also cost Democrats control of the House and Senate. Again: No pressure!
SPEAKING OF 2022 … What exactly is the takeaway from California Gov. GAVIN NEWSOM’s blowout victory in this week’s recall election? Here are a few smart reads with potential answers:
— It’s time to reverse TIP O’NEILL’s old axiom: Nowadays, even local politics are national, writes WaPo’s Dan Balz. Newsom’s camp successfully nationalized the recall race, bashing Texas (for its abortion law) and Florida (for its handling of the pandemic), linking LARRY ELDER to Trump and leaning hard into a more aggressive Covid-19 policy. But will that approach work in places that aren’t as deep-blue as California?
— Witness the swinging suburbs of Orange County, which have drawn attention in recent years as a “bellwether of key suburban and diversifying House districts nationwide,” write NYT’s Jill Cowan and Shane Goldmacher. In 2018, Dems flipped four House seats there; in 2020, the GOP flipped two back; on Tuesday, the county voted against the recall. What’s behind that? A mix of college-educated voters moving away from the Trump-era GOP, vaccine politics and a major influx of Asian American and Latino voters.
Key statistic: “The result statewide was that 64 percent of vaccinated independent voters opposed the recall, according to DAVID BINDER, Mr. Newsom’s pollster.”
— BUT, BUT, BUT: “California’s results are in line with the GOP taking the House in 2022,” writes CNN’s Harry Enten. Yes, the campaign was nationalized — and because of that, “we actually saw how a somewhat-unpopular president could hurt Democrats in swing congressional districts on Tuesday.”
Key statistic: “[V]oters’ feelings of Biden were quite predictive of how they voted on the recall,” Enten writes. “‘No’ won 93% of those who approved, while ‘yes’ on the recall won 89% of those who disapproved. The problem for Biden is that the exit poll indicates clear leakage in his support from a year ago. … Assuming Democrats get about 90% of the pro-Biden vote and lose about 90% of the anti-Biden vote nationwide, it would mean they would very likely lose the national House vote.”
Good Sunday morning, and thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza, Tara Palmeri.
THREE MORE TOP SUNDAY READS:
— Trump is looking for a challenger to oust MITCH MCCONNELL as GOP leader, report WSJ’s Michael Bender and Lindsay Wise. “Mr. Trump has spoken recently with senators and allies about trying to depose Mr. McConnell and whether any Republicans are interested in mounting a challenge, according to people familiar with the conversations. There is little appetite among Senate Republicans for such a plan, lawmakers and aides said, but the discussions risk driving a wedge deeper between the most influential figure in the Republican Party and its highest-ranking member in elected office.”
— Confusion over Biden’s plan on vaccine boosters is riling governors from both parties, writes Lauren Gardner. “Federal public health officials are still wrestling with who should get Covid-19 booster shots and when, but that hasn't stopped some states from moving ahead on their own,” Lauren writes. Even so, “the combination of aggressive state action and health experts’ pushback against Biden’s plan has amplified confusion about who needs boosters now, as the highly contagious Delta variant rips across the country.”
— A wild, bizarre story with big security implications: “The Scientist and the A.I.-Assisted, Remote-Control Killing Machine,” by NYT’s Ronen Bergman and Farnaz Fassihi. For 14 years, Israel wanted to kill Iran’s top nuclear scientist. Then they came up with a way to do it while using a trained sniper who was more than 1,000 miles away — and fired remotely. “[I]t was also the debut test of a high-tech, computerized sharpshooter kitted out with artificial intelligence and multiple-camera eyes, operated via satellite and capable of firing 600 rounds a minute.
“The souped-up, remote-controlled machine gun now joins the combat drone in the arsenal of high-tech weapons for remote targeted killing. But unlike a drone, the robotic machine gun draws no attention in the sky, where a drone could be shot down, and can be situated anywhere, qualities likely to reshape the worlds of security and espionage.”
SUNDAY BEST …
— House Majority Whip JIM CLYBURN (D-S.C.) said on CNN’s “State of the Union” that while Democratic leadership’s goal is to still hold the Sept. 27 infrastructure vote they promised moderates, “there is always a possibility the vote is going to be delayed.”
— House Budget Chair JOHN YARMUTH (D-Ky.) on “Fox News Sunday” on Dems’ wiggle room in trying to pass both big bills at roughly the same time: “Under the rules … the speaker does not have to actually … send it to the president for signature. She can hold on to that bill for a while. So there’s some flexibility in terms of how we mesh the two mandates.”
— Clyburn on hiking the debt ceiling with a Democrats-only vote: “If that’s what it takes, that’s what it will take.”
— NIH Director FRANCIS COLLINS on the FDA advisory panel voting to recommend Pfizer booster shots only for high-risk people, on “Fox News Sunday”: “We’re going to see what happens in the coming weeks. It would surprise me if it does not become clear over the next few weeks that that administration of boosters may need to be enlarged based upon the data that we've already seen both in the U.S. and in Israel. … I will be surprised if boosters are not recommended for people under 65 going forward in the next few weeks.”
— ANTHONY FAUCI on getting more information about possible Moderna and Johnson & Johnson booster shots, on NBC’s “Meet the Press”: “The actual data that we’ll get that third shot for the Moderna and second shot for the J&J is literally a couple to a few weeks away. We’re working on that right now to get the data to the FDA, so they can examine it and make a determination about the boosters for those people. They’re not being left behind by any means.”
BIDEN’S SUNDAY — The president has nothing on his public schedule.
VP KAMALA HARRIS’ SUNDAY — The VP has nothing on her public schedule.
PLAYBOOK READS
PULLOUT FALLOUT
DRONE DISASTER — In Kabul, the family of ZAMARAI AHMADI and the other nine people killed mistakenly by a U.S. drone strike have felt “a heavy weight” lifted now that the U.S. has acknowledged he wasn’t a terrorist, WaPo’s Sudarsan Raghavan reports. Now they’re focused on what they want: compensation, justice in court and U.S. assistance in getting resettled here or somewhere else safe.
OVERSIGHT BATTLE LINES — When top military leaders appear before Congress later this month, they’ll face Senate Republicans focused on the fact that Gen. AUSTIN “SCOTT” MILLER recommended this spring that the U.S. leave some troops in Afghanistan, per WaPo’s Karoun Demirjian and Dan Lamothe. Democrats, meanwhile, are likely to examine the broader war across several administrations.
THOSE WE LEFT BEHIND — AP’s Bernard Condon and Julie Watson talked to U.S. residents still stuck in Afghanistan, still waiting for help. They heard stories of “a fearful, furtive existence of hiding in houses for weeks, keeping the lights off at night, moving from place to place, and donning baggy clothing and burqas to avoid detection if they absolutely must venture out.”
FREEDOM FRIES WATCH
LATEST VOLLEY FROM FRANCE — On Saturday, French Foreign Minister JEAN-YVES LE DRIAN again lashed out at the U.S., the U.K. and Australia over the submarine deal that has precipitated a major diplomatic skirmish. “There has been lying, duplicity, a major breach of trust and contempt,” he said, calling it “a serious crisis.” More from Agence France-Presse
— Bloomberg’s Kitty Donaldson reports that this could be a moment for British PM BORIS JOHNSON to shore up his ties with the Biden administration as he comes to the U.S. this week. But there are a number of thorny issues in play, including a forthcoming environmental summit, Afghanistan and a trade deal.
THE WHITE HOUSE
ANOTHER WOODWARD/COSTA BITE — Fox News’ Adam Shaw, naturally, focuses on the revelation from the forthcoming “Peril” book that Biden aides sought to mitigate Biden’s gaffe tendencies “by keeping him away from ‘unscripted events or long interviews.’ ‘They called the effect “the wall,” a cocooning of the president,’ they wrote.”
VP CORNER — Harris made a surprise appearance Saturday at a Howard University-Hampton University football game. More from The Hill
DON’T DRINK AND FLY — Boeing is investigating after it found two empty mini tequila bottles on a future Air Force One plane in San Antonio, WSJ’s Andrew Tangel scoops. It’s considered “particularly serious because it involves alcohol and highly classified jets.”
JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH
SO MUCH FOR THAT — After weeks of preparation and concern, the “Justice for J6” pro-Capitol insurrectionist rally in Washington on Saturday mostly fizzled out. Capitol Police tallied just 400 to 450 attendees, including members of the press, and violent incidents didn’t materialize despite a massive police presence. More from Nicholas Wu, Kyle Cheney and Josh Gerstein … Four people were arrested
POLITICS ROUNDUP
DEMOCRACY IN CRISIS — The threats against poll workers around the country have gotten so bad that they’ve now formed an Election Official Legal Defense Network, NYT’s Michael Wines reports. The nonpartisan effort from BENJAMIN GINSBERG and BOB BAUER will give free legal services to any election officials who need them, and it’s currently recruiting lawyers.
REDISTRICTING ROUNDUP — In several states, the push to wrest control of redistricting away from partisan legislators and into the hands of bipartisan commissions is looking like a good-government reform gone somewhat awry, AP’s David Lieb reports. From Ohio to New York to Virginia, members of the commissions are clashing, splitting along party lines or subject to partisan oversight.
CONGRESS
STRANGE BEDFELLOWS — RAHM EMANUEL could end up U.S. ambassador to Japan thanks to … LINDSEY GRAHAM? The liberal revolt against his nomination could force Emanuel to find some unlikely Senate saviors — and he’s already landed the support of Graham (R-S.C.), ROY BLUNT (R-Mo.) and SUSAN COLLINS (R-Maine), WaPo’s Sean Sullivan and Tyler Pager report. Emanuel’s mounting “an aggressive behind-the-scenes effort” with both parties, and the White House sounds confident despite many remaining question marks.
FOR YOUR RADAR — Rep. LEE ZELDIN (R-N.Y.) announced that he was diagnosed with early-stage leukemia last November, but is now in remission with a good prognosis and normal life expectancy. Zeldin’s likely to land the GOP nomination in next year’s New York gubernatorial race. More from Spectrum News… His statement
BEYOND THE BELTWAY
DEEP IN THE HEART — Texas Republicans successfully pulled off a major veer to the hard right in their legislative session this year, and they’re emboldened to keep pushing in that direction, per NYT’s David Goodman. After pumping out new laws to restrict voting, ban most abortions, expand gun rights and more, the party is looking to focus on topics like redistricting and transgender athletes in a special session that begins Monday.
— The Texas Tribune’s Rebekah Allen looks at the first step in the redistricting process — the release Saturday of a proposed GOP map for state Senate districts. This is the first redistricting cycle since the Supreme Court gutted the Voting Rights Act, making it easier for Texas Republicans to gerrymander.
— TOP-ED: “Why I violated Texas’s extreme abortion ban,” by San Antonio doctor/abortion provider Alan Braid in WaPo.
— Here’s the political impact: Texas Gov. GREG ABBOTT is down 9 points to MATTHEW MCCONAUGHEY in a hypothetical gubernatorial matchup, while his lead over BETO O’ROURKE has shrunk by 7 points, in a new Dallas Morning News/UT Tyler poll. On the other hand, going hard right has kept his primary challengers at bay. The poll
KEYSTONE COUNT — A group of Democratic state senators in Pennsylvania have filed suit to block their Republican colleagues “from subpoenaing voter records as part of a review of the 2020 election,” reports Philly Inquirer’s Jonathan Lai. Earlier in the week, GOP lawmakers issued a wide-reaching subpoena as they embark on a so-called “forensic audit” of the 2020 vote.
AT THE BORDER — U.S. Customs and Border Protection is deploying 400 additional agents and officers to the Texas town where a steady stream of Haitian border-crossers suddenly turned into a flood in recent days, per Reuters.
— But in Del Rio, “Haitian migrants seeking to escape poverty, hunger and a feeling of hopelessness in their home country said they will not be deterred,” AP’s Juan Lozano, Eric Gay and Elliot Spagat report.
CLIMATE FILES
YELLEN AND RESISTEN — Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN seems likely not to tell regulators to curb lending to major contributors to climate change — a disappointment for activists, reports WaPo’s Jeff Stein. “Treasury officials say that enacting policy to crack down on such lending is difficult, in part because it requires convincing an array of independent U.S. banking regulators — including three appointed by Republicans — to unite behind an aggressive climate framework.”
DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS — Human rights activists and Republicans are worried that the Biden administration is sacrificing too many issues of concern to seek climate cooperation with China, AP’s Ellen Knickmeyer reports.
PLAYBOOKERS
SPOTTED on Saturday night on the rooftop of the Cairo apartment building in D.C. for Shawn McCreesh’s going-away party and to celebrate his new job at New York magazine: Olivia Nuzzi, Maureen Dowd, Ashley Parker, Alex Thomas, Leon Wieseltier, Celeste Marcus, Carl Hulse, Juleanna Glover, Francesca Craig, Matt Rosenberg, Scott Sloofman, Ashley Mocarski, Katie Benner, Phil Elliott, Josh Volz, Annie Karni, Zolan Kanno-Youngs and Kevin Chafee.
SPOTTED: National security adviser Jake Sullivan at Other Half Brewing in Ivy City on Saturday afternoon.
THE PARTY CIRCUIT — Jonathan Capehart, Nick Schmit and Tammy Haddad hosted a dinner for MSNBC President Rashida Jones on Friday evening at Annabelle, where guests peppered Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) with questions about ongoing congressional negotiations. There were toasts to Jones and Ed Fisher on their recent engagement and to Jones and Sally Buzbee on their new-ish jobs. Also SPOTTED: White House press secretary Jen Psaki, White House comms director Kate Bedingfield, Andrea Mitchell, Hilary Rosen, Stephanie Ruhle, Toni and Dwight Bush, Symone Sanders and Shawn Townsend, John McCarthy and Karen Finney.
— Steve and Lucie Holland hosted the Gridiron Club’s fall social Saturday at their Alexandria home, the Gridiron’s first in-person event in 18 months. About 50 club members and significant others attended, enjoying passed hors d’oeuvres and wine and beer. SPOTTED: Susan Page, Carl Leubsdorf, Tommy Burr, Craig Gilbert and Carol Guensburg, Melissa and Danny Burke, Ian Couzens, Jeff Mason, Chuck Raasch, Sandy Johnson, Col. Jason Fettig, Linda Feldmann, Caren Bohan, Doyle McManus and John Fritze.
WEEKEND WEDDING — Jonathan Kellam, director of individual philanthropy at Food And Water Watch, and Chase Hardin, a comms supervisor at Clyde Strategies, got married Saturday in a private ceremony in Rock Creek Park, with a reception at Roofers Union. Pic … SPOTTED: officiant David Chipman and Tara Chipman, Florida state Rep. Anna Eskamani, Isabella James, Katherine Phillips, Chris and Amanda Fleming, Margarete Strand, Bettina Weiss, John Assini, Matt Nocella and Denise Feriozzi.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) ... Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas) … Facebook’s Andrea Saul ... Washington Examiner’s Michael Barone ... Toby Chaudhuri … Serve America PAC’s Michaela Johnson ... Suzanne Salgado ... David Pittman ... Greta Carnes … Claire Gianotti ... Jeannie Bunton of the Consumer Bankers Association … Potomac Square Group’s Chris Cooper … The Center for Public Integrity’s Sarah Kleiner … Sarah Davey Wolman of the Raben Group … Smithsonian Magazine’s Teddy Scheinman … Sonali Desai of Rep. Judy Chu’s (D-Calif.) office … Monica Crowley … Ben Cantrell of Rep. Markwayne Mullin’s (R-Okla.) office … Ariana Mushnick … John Byers of Rep. August Pfluger’s (D-Texas) office … retired Army Lt. Gen. Patrick M. Hughes … Amanda DeBard ... Will Hackman ... Curtis Rhyne ... Sarah Marie Miller ... Frank Konkel ... kglobal’s Neal Urwitz ... Kimberly Halkett ... Bruce Alpert … Adam Temple … Brian Phillips Jr. of the House Homeland Security Dems … Penguin Random House’s Stuart Applebaum … Roger Angell (1-0-1) … Barry Scheck
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