- Subtropical Storm Nicole formed east of the Bahamas early Monday.
- This storm will track toward the Bahamas and the Southeast U.S. coast this week.
- Nicole could be a strong tropical storm or possibly at hurricane strength when it nears Florida.
- Hurricane, storm surge and tropical storm watches have been issued in Florida.
- Strong winds, heavy rain, high surf, rip currents and coastal flooding are expected along the Southeast coast.
Subtropical Storm Nicole has prompted hurricane, tropical storm and storm surge watches as a prolonged period of coastal flooding, beach erosion, strong winds, high surf, rip currents and heavy rain is expected in Florida and parts of the Southeast this week.
Nicole became the 14th storm of the Atlantic season early Monday morning and is centered several hundred miles east of the Bahamas.
The storm has been classified as subtropical for now, which means it's a hybrid type system that has characteristics of both a tropical and non-tropical storm. Nicole is forecast to transition into a fully tropical storm in the next day or so.
(MORE: Difference Between Subtropical And Tropical)
A hurricane watch has been issued in eastern Florida from the Space Coast south to Hallandale Beach in Broward County, including Lake Okeechobee, and also in the northwestern Bahamas, including Nassau and Freeport.
Tropical storm watches extend south to Miami-Dade County and extend north of the Space Coast into Glynn County, Georgia, including Daytona Beach and St. Simons Island.
A storm surge watch is also in effect from Glynn County, Georgia, to Broward County, Florida.
These watches mean the respective conditions are possible within 48 hours. Those areas could be upgraded to warnings.
Forecast Track, Intensity
Nicole is making its turn toward the west right now and will continue its general westward track toward the Bahamas and Florida through midweek.
Nicole is forecast to become a Category 1 hurricane near the northwest Bahamas. Landfall of Nicole's center is expected on Florida's eastern coast sometime early Thursday, however, impacts will arrive well before that happens.
Nicole will then curl north near or over Florida before getting picked up by a cold front that turns the storm northeastward over the Southeast states or its adjacent coastal waters late this week.
Current Status, Forecast Path
(The red-shaded area denotes the potential path of the center of the tropical cyclone. It's important to note that impacts (particularly heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding, winds) with any tropical cyclone usually spread beyond its forecast path. )Southeast Forecast Impacts
Regardless of what it's called, Nicole will be a large system, with impacts spreading far from its center, as well as arriving sooner than, and lasting longer than, the passage of its center.
Storm Surge, Coastal Flood, Beach Erosion
Persistent onshore winds well ahead of Nicole's center will lead to coastal flooding along parts of the Southeast coast from Florida to the Carolinas beginning Tuesday.
This coastal flooding at high tide will increase each day and peak as storm surge as the center of Nicole approaches early Thursday morning. The National Hurricane Center's peak storm surge forecast, if it occurs at high tide, is shown below.
Given coastal flooding over multiple high tide cycles and battering waves riding atop the storm surge, major beach erosion and some damage to infrastructure is expected along Florida's East Coast and parts of the Georgia coast. This is particularly the case for eastern Florida's coast damaged from Hurricane Ian in late September, as the NWS office in Melbourne, Florida, noted.
Some moderate to major coastal flooding is also possible as far north as the Carolinas, including Charleston, South Carolina, and Tybee Island, Georgia.
Winds
Gusty winds are already increasing on the Southeast coast because of a pressure difference between Nicole and a strong high-pressure system building toward the eastern states.
Tropical storm-force winds could arrive in the northwest Bahamas Tuesday night into early Wednesday, and along Florida's East Coast as soon as Wednesday. This could make preparations more difficult.
Hurricane conditions, if they occur, could arrive in eastern Florida by Wednesday night.
Winds of this magnitude are capable of downing trees and knocking out power.
Rainfall
While some bands of locally heavy rain are possible along the coast of Florida as soon as Tuesday, the heaviest rain is expected in Florida beginning Wednesday, then should spread along parts of eastern Georgia and the Carolinas Thursday through Saturday.
The heaviest rainfall totals are expected in northeast Florida, including some areas flooded from Hurricane Ian's rain. Parts of the St. Johns River are still above flood stage following Ian's rain about six weeks ago.
A broad footprint of at least an inch or two of rain is possible from parts of southern Florida into the Carolinas.
This could lead to flash flooding and some river flooding.
Rainfall Outlook
(This should be interpreted as a broad outlook of where the heaviest rain may fall. Higher amounts may occur where bands or clusters of thunderstorms stall for over a period of a few hours. )Check back with us at weather.com for important updates.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
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Subtropical Storm Nicole Prompts Hurricane Watches For Florida's East Coast, Georgia - The Weather Channel
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