ABOARD THE USS ABRAHAM LINCOLN—China is likely to move more cautiously over Taiwan and other regional issues after seeing the hit Russia’s economy has taken from its invasion of Ukraine, said Rahm Emanuel, the U.S. ambassador to Japan.
Mr. Emanuel, the former chief of staff to President Barack Obama and ex-mayor of Chicago, took up his ambassadorial post in January and has sought to rally American allies in Asia to counter Beijing. He spent Saturday with Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi aboard the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, which is sailing near Japan after taking part in exercises in the Sea of Japan.
The ambassador said Russians were surprised by the joint sanctions adopted by the U.S., European Union nations and other allies in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24. “A lot of people” in Russian ruling circles “realize that this was a mistake. They never saw that type of impact,” Mr. Emanuel said, citing an estimate that Russia’s economy may shrink 15% this year.
While acknowledging that “the Taiwan Strait is not the Dnieper River,” Mr. Emanuel said he believed China would view Moscow’s experience as a cautionary tale.
“It’s not only what we have learned. It’s also what China has taken heed of. Because nobody saw the type of force, which is its own multiplier, when an alliance speaks up,” he said. Russia’s experience “has its own ability to have a pause” on Beijing’s ambitions, he said.
China hasn’t ruled out the use of force to take control of Taiwan, a democratically self-ruled island that Beijing claims as part of its territory. It says the U.S. is being selfish in its moves against Moscow.
Washington aims at “imposing the U.S.-led order serving its own selfish interests” and “will be met with unanimous opposition from countries holding just positions,” said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian on Friday. The day before, another ministry spokesman, Wang Wenbin, said about the Ukraine war: “Imposing sanctions is not the right way to ease the situation, end the war and avoid more casualties.”
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Russia-Ukraine War: Latest News and Live Updates - The Wall Street Journal
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